The Federal Reserve's Bostic said confidence in the economic outlook for 2025 has decreased. It is difficult to take into account all potential policy changes in the economic outlook; inflation progress is not expected to show a straight line. The Federal Reserve did not cut interest rates significantly last year, and policy remains binding; satisfied with pausing interest rate cuts to observe economic development. The Federal Reserve is approaching the threshold level of its balance sheet, and ...
JPMorgan now sees a 35 per cent chance of the US economy slipping into recession by the end of the year, up from 25 per cent at the start of last month. JPMorgan economists led by Bruce Kasman wrote in a note to clients on Wednesday that the US news "suggests weaker labour demand than expected, with tentative signs of job cuts". The team maintained the chance of a recession by the second half of 2025 at 45 per cent. "We have moderately raised the...